tv Fast Money CNBC October 4, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
>> it looked like president obama was not prepared. >> the industry e champion did take off today. >> by the way, i like coal. >> as long as he doesn't say anything like this. >> i was in bangkok myself and mark, i didn't see you in the disco. >> well that was the lowest class of all. >> fast money, right now. >> live from the market in new york city's times square. stocks getting a boost today and is this a romney rally? what is the best way to play it. >> i think you have to look at the sector that is most undervalued. i think a romney victory brings back the return of normalized
earnings much faster. you will see a regulatory environment that is more in line with what i think the 2012 market should be. we have over regulated in that sense and the value of the us dollar under romney will get stronger. >> karen? >> i agree with what he is saying. there is the perception of economic growth and if that is the case and less regulation, i think you are see the industrials get better. >> i think if we can get back to 2007 and 8: 20 2007 and 2008 levels, it will be better. >> how often do you get a candidate that calls out a sector like that? >> it is not just the president
and regulations that have hurt coal stocks? >> that has hurt it as much as the president holding things back. but obviously romney calling this out is why stocks were up 6 to 7%. the question i have is up to what day do you decide to pull the trigger and say romney is going to win and i'm going to put my money where my mouth is. >> i like them whether obama wins or whether romney wins. >> i'm already positioned better. return to normalized earning is more. >> let's go to the options desk xgt where do you stand? >> i agree that i think it is
positive for coal stocks. i think the alternative energy names are places that i would want to avoid. one debate isn't enough to take it. i don't like the solar stocks. i like them less and both sectors trade it higher today. on health care, we havekhave ke book and we start off with the health care sector. >> before you think about positions yourself, i think there are a couple of things you should think about what was stated last night. the republicans focus on cost and that is what romney was saying. i think it is different on the democratic side. they are talking about access
before cost. i think the second point is the how. the how is the quarterback will be the private industry and it is the insurance industry. on the democratic side it is big government and debt pan ets or whatever you want to call it. so, that is the frame against which you should think about your investment decisions. nn in my space you should be over managed care. that is the quarterback i talked about. i would be under with medical e devi devices. the paying patients coming in from obamacare would be fewer.
>> is there anywhere that you think isn't priced for edger romney or obama victory? like say the records company? are those already priced to perfection regardless of who wins? health it, the stimless package in 09 funded up held ith it. we have seen strong performers. that should continue to do fine. pharmaceuticals are less to the elections. they are not completely free of exposure but it is less than on the hospital side. >> wouldn't a romney victory eliminate the exercise tax? wouldn't that be good for medical devices?
going forward, however, in this $500 billion plus spend in the medicare program, $400 billion plus in medicaid, it is going to come out of devices to a large extent. >> it was a great story to this spring, fantastic stock taken out to the wood shed. >> can that rally continue? >> i think so. they mispriced earnings in the first quarter and guided down in the second quarter and had a nice rally. it depends on how they guide for 2013 and there should be growth in there regardless of whether it is bam obama and romney. >> do you think the stocks will predict the victory and the
polls? >> the stocks told us the surprising outcome prior to the official decision being announced. >> so when it comes to the polling i think the day before the wall street journal poll the stocks rallied a little the polls were closer. so i see that happening. i think there will be a lot of vol atility with the debates. >> reduced expectations for certain web games. ceo saying the third quarter continues to be challenging. take a look at facebook as well
moving after hours. that stock also down 1.7%. >> how are you trading this? if you could borrow this stock you should. every day this is open this is circling the drain. it will probably do the same thing again tomorrow. facebook, that is a for troublesome thing because of issues about private messages and using likes in people's private messages. >> let get back to the political trade here. kevin, good to see you, what do you think investors should back? >> it is not just because mitt
romney says he loves coal, it is because he can do something about it on day one. the reason the coal companies have been hurt so badly is because of the surplus. on day one, romney could change those. exports are going to be key for the growth as demands shrink here in the u.s. not so good for the six westbound terminals in washington. it is not that you can say that obama is good for natural gas, that is marginal cost increases, it is however, a stronger demand market for natural gas in an obama market if demand recovers. >> it could be a good market for coal. and if romney does win that could be another boost for coal.
we don't want to get too far ahead of our selves. we are down from the 2007 peak. export demand is weak globally. i want to make sure that the domestic demand isn't far ahead under us. the question is going to be the next group of retirements. that some spare you anywhere from 50 to 100 million tons a year. >> energy is underperforming so far a year. what is the risk on a romney victory or an obama victory? >> mlp's are getting bigger. in 1986 a reform came after the boston celtics won. a tax reform only happens if romney wins.
can sink your teeth into. i didn't write that. well, you know, it is already out there. the company has reports 7 straight upside earning surprises. joining us is the ceo. i understand that you are about to report your earnings shortly. so you are in a quiet period. what can you tell us. >> business is good. consumption numbers are up double digit. eating healthy and i've said it on the show before is not a fad or a trend. we have prop coming up. 98% of hain's products are free.
we introduced a how much or bpo food. you squirt it off into the bowl for kids. there is so much out there today. i just saw numbers where more an more consumers are eating at home. business is strong and trend is your friend. >> your stock has been on fire. there is the perception that organic means costs more. is the consumer off on that? >> it is absolutely costs somewhat more. i'll tell you, if you are not eating healthy today it is going
to cost you more in your life. if you looked at the debate last night. we talked about health care. we have obesity. that is starting here, mayor bloomberg in new york getting rid of sodium. reduction in sodium 3700 milligrams of sodium. look at these chips. it is look at the vegetables, look at what you are getting in there. it is not a potato chip fried in oil. it is a healthier snack. here is a corn chip made with
sprouted corn. listen can we make everything with no calories and no fat? it is not going to taste good. >> you have done the same recently. did i tay from that? >> you are taking advantage from cheap money. he have grown hain i started it in 1993. we have taken great acquisitions and we are on our way to $100 million. earth's best was a $14 million business. today well over $115 million. they don't know how to take it with the next level. one of the big temperatuopportur us is the soup business. in five years cans of soup will
not go away all together but will go away in a big way. if you look at our chicken products. antibiotic free. you don't want them in your meat and chicken today. the whole thing with sprouted grain. recently you had johnson and johnson come out and say we are going to take fermaldahyde out of our products. the consumer is educated and reads labels and looks for ingreedients. there are so many sicknesses out there today. it is coming from the processed foods that we eat. >> let me ask you, on the acquisition firm, what about you
as the prey, pepsi for example, the stock is doing okay, but they haven't found growth, this would fit. >> we are in the snack business, the beverage business, one of the things with hain, i think there are opportunity to take our brands globally, we are 4500 people worldwide. eating healthy and organic is going to get bigger, would you consider breaking up your business? could you see that maybe if you broke apart the company into snacks that you might command different premiums? >> as you walk into a retailer today, we walk in as a p and g
natural food business. today walking in with a personal care area. walking in with a non dairy and the big problem we have today is supply is being able to get natural ingredients. >> we have to end the segment. >> i thought we could keep going the whole show. >> i hope you come by soon. we love talking to you. >> the ceo of hain secelestial. >> i pull back in the stock has been interesting. 22 times forward earnings. so yeah, i think the stock works. >> there are a lot of folks that focus in on what is healthy for you. look at the move in whole foods since 2008. hain is up 143%.
fantastic returns. i think they continue to form again regardlts ess of the econ. organics is your passion. >> in deed it is. the premier acquisition i think hain is fine. i think you look at annie's and smart balance they are moving out to colorado as well. >> we want to check on an after hours mover. that is zinga. it is bringing down the likes. energy name picks up steam we'll tell you why. plus it is one of the last and most crucial job reports we will take you what to expect and how to trade it next.
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kathy, in terms of the jobs report how are traders positioning themselves what are they expecting? >> when you look at the price action, most people are looking for a stronger number. there is a greater chance given the fact that the ism as well as the average of jobless claims could be weak. even though positions are to the upside right now, they could be disappointed. >> the key here is if you want to sell the u.s. dollar is what? >> the best currency to focus on is the yen. your dollar -- you will initially see the dollar move. but then once we get near the stock market open that could reverse itself. we like to trade the dollar yen
much more. it has the cleanest reaction. a bad number would be negative for the dollar yen. i think the risk is to the downside. i'm looking to sell dollar yen at 78.25 with a stop at 79 and a target at 77. it is not there yet but a report could take us down at this level. >> i think it is going to be bad and i wish it was good. i know the people that want to see a great number. and i think people some of them did get to the sidelines going into the bell today. because i think they are worried about that. >> is bad good? >> it could be that bad is good as far as jobs report but it is not going to be good for the
president. >> good to see you. >> time now for pops and drops. we have a drop here for berry elastic. >> this was the new trade today. little too expensive. too much. >> drop for newvasive. >> if they don't turn up. this won't be a $15 stock then. i'm looking to pick it up tomorrow. >> regions financial up 2% joe? >> you stay with this trade it will get a 10 print soon. you are seeing a recovery in the southeast. focus may be away from the midwest where the regional branchs are not performing well. >> put it back out to investors
favorable to the stop. >> wilson made committees a lot of shorts covering i think that continues but i think you are looking for an ap opportunity to short this stock again. i would wait for it to get to 48 and then drop it this way. >> got it. >> there are rumors abounding that sprint may be topping. they are looking to merge that with t mobil. but i do think that this kind of a pull back is not so much to make it compelling. >> we have a pop here for snake venom. the venom of the black momba
snake is a pain killer. they are hoping to harness the pain killing properties for human consumption. >> how do you know about it? >> he watched "kill bill 2". >> i watched the show "top 12 deadliest snakes". >> if you see one on the streets of new york tstay away. just saying. >> drop here for coal 2%. >> in a day for sort of muted same store sales it was pretty bad for kohl's. i'd stay away. >> dr. j. >> sun trust says they are going to meet their numbers and not warn going forward. that was good for a pop that held at the highs of the day. >> the move 4%.
>> no interest in steel manufacturing figures still remain weak. it has been an under performer and not something that you should bottom pick. >> joe has done a nice job with these. >> this stock has had a huge run up. i think the run continues. i think it is going to trade up. >> 3m and avery terminated their agreeme agreement. this is a setback for avery and it is not clear who the navy gets a drop here. it appears that one hedge fund has taken a page out of the book here. >> the strange move comes after argentina failed to pay the
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>> what are some names you should be shorting. obviously etf that short stocks. let's run through them. this is a company with a tremendous amount of debt. this was one of the private equity buy outs. >> the technicals are lipe lining up with the story. >> you have to think to yourself not only are the fund mentals poor. it is very dangerous to be
hitting 52 week lows. in the wireless broad space. dish is rolling out an internet and wholesale area that is going to compete with their network and the network that they are going to be moving to. it is going to be competitive. >> richy brothers auctioneers we don't ever talk about this name. >> they are an auctioneer and their inventory has been bui building quite a bit. one of the things that they have done is they created a fee. that basically went boosted
revenue. they almost added this to continue to keep their growth going. if you took this one fee out, you would be looking at a negative 2% grower and they are saying their 11% growth company. it is trading toward the 52 week lows and it is being distributed over a 52 week trade. it is in the auto parts business and they require a lot of capex to do what they do. this is not more for you or for the viewer. actually puts would be excellent because the vix is so low.
but you have to know individual stock and the liquidity of the options and things like that. >> brad, i have to ask you about your performance. your year to date performance was down. he has these picks but what sort of environment are we in, in terms of being a bear fund manager. >> everything on this panel, i have watched cnbc myself. lots of bulls out there. you get names moving down. one thing that the performance doesn't show. and everyone who does trade should know. we make beta moves within the portfolio. right now we are moving to higher beta.
it doesn't surprise me. when i was here in june and the markets were down. everyone was wow, your performance was great. it has a lot to do with beta. we are getting more beta now. but one thing i would like to mention. last week inside our buy-sell ratio was one to eight. while the fed is doing what they can smart money is exiting the door stage left. >> brad, nice to see you. dr. g anyone on this list look attractive to you in terms of being short? >> i worry about johnson control. that is one of the ones that stuck out to me on the list. even though we have that had on some of the autos. let's move onto energy here.
dan lowe told investors that shares could be 60% higher. it is interesting we did talk about this stock yesterday. low and behold somebody seems to be moving along yesterday. they paid close to $4 million in premium committed betting that the stock could be well above $64. i think that is interesting. i recall that dan said if they did spill off some of those businesses, the stock could be worth $54 a share. >> coming up, what is in a name, a brand name that is. one of the brains behind some of the most popular brand names around reveals the tricks of the trade. stick around for that story. coming back.
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here. >> this is a secular change that everyone on this desk has been talking about since august of 2010. ibm they saw the future an the need to go into services and be a cloud company. i think ibm continues to be the beneficiary here. she talked about the potential for funds to exit and we heard about the change to a cloud company. we are talking about revenues ome of 8.5 billion by 2013. you look at emc in terms of large cap technology. they are a winner. >> if you throw up a chart. early on in the section. it was down and then made a come back finishing the day to the up
said. karen, people are getting in there and they see something. >> well, i hear that as it is going to be worse than it is now. i think she did a good job of trying to lower expectations. but i think still the street doesn't believe it. i think if they came close to that, i don't think they would have a four multiple. remember, there is dead here. this is not like dell where there is excess cash. but, you know, i think the one thing we could see here is, when 13f filings come out. i think we are going to see big stakes being built here. i think they already, that was from their last filing, but i k at this level. >> would you buy dell here? >> at hp, as a value investor,
it is hard not to take a close look. having lost a fair amount of money in the name. >> would you look at acm as one of the beneficiaries? >> i don't know. >> okay. >> let's move on here and talk names. well, we are a polite company. you are not rush russian. joining us is a brand naming specialist. good to have you with us. good afternoon. >> a name like this. they didn't vet it properly. do you think that it would cause them to rethink the brand name in russia?
>> i don't think it is going to. it appears that they are not. and i think for in many ways the pending disaster of that name has probably eevaporated a little bit. it still isn't the strategic asset that kraft has. but i think their strategy was of course delicious food for the world. to have a different name would be a problem for them. >> it is what you consider to be weak brands out there. is it because it is sort of hard to say? >> well, there are a couple of things. it does a couple of things right by the way. >> it appears that what they wanted to communication was delicious food for the world.